Long Live Mining: How the Green Revolution Is Forging a New Geopolitical and Investment Order

By Seb Arvedson

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We Are Not in a Transition—We Are in a Transformation

Forget what you think you know about the “energy transition.” We are living through one of the most profound and unprecedented shifts in global economic history: a seismic transformation of power, supply chains, and capital. As Graian For—an expert in energy systems and critical minerals at Bloomberg NEF—observes, “It’s very rare that people get to live through a transition in an energy system.” Rare, and profoundly disruptive—especially for those caught unprepared.

Unlike past revolutions, where new energy forms gradually displaced old ones, today’s transition is accelerated by politics, driven by policy, and fraught with geopolitical tension. It’s a high-stakes chess game—and only those who understand the board, and its shifting alliances, will come out ahead.

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The Three Waves of Innovation: From Mandate to Momentum

Graian For introduces a vital framework for understanding how green technologies move from niche to norm. Innovation, he explains, unfolds in three distinct waves:

1. Policy and Politics – Adoption is fueled by subsidies, mandates, and ideological support.

2. Cost Competitiveness – As technologies hit price parity, market forces take over.

3. Product Superiority – Adoption becomes inevitable because the product is simply better.

Electric vehicles (EVs) are in the first wave—propped up by regulation. But that won’t last. “Over the next decade... electric vehicles will actually become cheaper than internal combustion engines,” For predicts. The second wave will see economics overpower ideology.