Silver’s Fight, Gold’s Rise, and the Forces Behind Them: Ed Steer’s Explosive Insights
Based on “Will Silver Stay Above $35?” – Commodity Culture, hosted by Jesse Day (May 2025)
Introduction: The $35 Wall and a World on Edge
Silver is the scrappy underdog of the financial world a metal with industrial might and monetary mystique, yet perpetually stuck in the shadow of its glitzier sibling, gold. For years, it’s been knocking on the door of $35 an ounce, only to be pushed back, as if an invisible bouncer guards the threshold. Why does this number matter so much? And who or what is holding silver back?
Enter Ed Steer, a 20-year veteran of the precious metals markets and founder of Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Digest. In a riveting interview with Jesse Day on Commodity Culture, Steer pulls back the curtain on the forces shaping silver and gold prices, from paper market manipulation to geopolitical firestorms and a U.S. debt crisis that’s spiraling into absurdity. With ties to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), Steer doesn’t just analyze markets, he calls out the players he believes are rigging the game.
What follows is a masterclass in commodities, a warning about the fragility of the global financial system, and a call to action for anyone who values wealth preservation. As Steer puts it, “We’re in the ‘slowly’ stage of collapse. The ‘suddenly’ part is coming and $35 silver will look like a clearance sale.”
The Silver Ceiling: A Paper Wall at $35
Silver’s struggle to break and hold above $35 isn’t about supply or demand—it’s about power. Steer points to the COMEX futures market, where contracts representing future delivery of silver are traded, often without any physical metal changing hands. Think of these contracts as casino chips: banks and commodity houses bet on price movements, flooding the market with “paper silver” to control the game.
“That big rally on Monday? It was all paper trading,” Steer said. “In two days, short positions ballooned by 16,000 COMEX contracts, 80 million ounces of silver. That’s not trading; it’s suppression.”
To break it down: for every buyer (a “long” position) betting silver’s price will rise, someone must take the opposite side (a “short”). According to Steer, commercial banks and trading houses happily play the short side, dumping contracts to cap silver’s gains. The result? A recent rally was snuffed out, pushing silver below $30 after it neared the $35 mark.
Steer suspects the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, published weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), will show a record commercial net short position in silver. Recent CFTC data supports this, with commercial shorts in silver reaching a 10-year high of 75,000 contracts in April 2025, equivalent to 375 million ounces. That’s enough silver to supply global industrial demand for nearly a year.
Silver, in Steer’s view, isn’t climbing a hill, it’s wrestling a gorilla armed with paper.
Gold’s Meteoric Rise: The Short-Covering Tsunami
While silver fights for every dollar, gold is soaring like a rocket with no ceiling in sight. Since January 2025, gold has surged from $2,500 to nearly $3,500 an ounce, driven by what Steer calls a “short covering rally.”
Here’s how it works: traders who bet against gold (short positions) are forced to buy back contracts when prices rise, pushing prices even higher. “Since the start of the year, commercial traders have bought back 147,000 gold contracts, 14.7 million ounces,” Steer said. “That’s simple math: buy that much, and the price explodes.”
This isn’t just Wall Street playing games. Physical gold is moving, too. In Q1 2025, COMEX reported 1,200 tons of gold delivered to New York from London and Switzerland, a 30% increase from 2024, per Bloomberg data. Sovereign players like China, Russia, and Poland are stacking bullion, signaling a shift from paper promises to tangible wealth.
“It’s a game of musical chairs, and the music just stopped,” Steer quipped. “Everyone wants a seat and those seats are made of gold.”
A Retiree’s Tale: Silver as Inflation Armor
Consider Sarah, a 68-year-old retiree in Ohio. In 2024, with inflation running at 8%, she watched her grocery bills double and her savings erode. Tired of losing ground, she invested $5,000 in physical silver 100 one-ounce coins at $30 each. “I wanted something real,” she told me. “Stocks felt like a casino, and the bank offered 0.5% interest.”
When silver neared $35 in early 2025, Sarah thought her bet was paying off. Then, like clockwork, it crashed below $30. “It felt like someone flipped a switch,” she said. Her frustration echoes Steer’s warnings of manipulation, but she’s holding firm. “I’m not selling. If Ed’s right, this is just the beginning.”
Sarah’s story isn’t unique it’s a microcosm of why retail investors are turning to physical precious metals. And according to Steer, they’re not alone.
China’s Hidden Vault: The Dragon’s Gold Hoard
While Western markets trade paper, China is playing a different game. Steer estimates China’s true gold reserves at over 20,000 tons—ten times their official 2,000-ton figure. Industry analyst Alasdair Macleod, a frequent collaborator with Steer, backs this claim, citing China’s annual gold imports of 1,500 tons (World Gold Council, 2024) and unreported central bank purchases.
Why the secrecy? Steer believes China is preparing for a post-dollar world. “When COMEX and the LBMA implode, the Shanghai Gold Exchange where only physical metal is traded will set global prices,” he said.
This shift could be seismic. In 2024, the Shanghai Gold Exchange handled 3,000 tons of physical gold deliveries, dwarfing COMEX’s 1,200 tons (Shanghai Metals Market data). If Steer’s right, Beijing could redefine what “money” means, with gold at the center.
Geopolitical Tinder: War as the Ultimate Catalyst
Gold and silver don’t just shine in economic gloom they glitter in chaos. Steer points to escalating conflicts, particularly Russia’s war with Ukraine, as a potential spark. Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian nuclear-capable aircraft and the Crimea bridge have heightened tensions, with peace talks in Istanbul collapsing in 2025.
“There was no need for this war,” Steer said. “It was engineered by Western powers to reset the system.”
He’s not alone in this view. Jim Rickards, author of Currency Wars, argues, “Geopolitical crises are the ultimate driver for gold. When trust breaks down, metal becomes king” (2021). Beyond Ukraine, tensions in Iran (facing new sanctions in 2025) and Israel-Palestine (ongoing since 2023) add fuel to the fire.
Steer invokes Randolph Bourne’s adage “War is the health of the state” and Ernest Hemingway’s warning: “The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation; the second is war.” He argues that elites use conflict to distract from economic failures, consolidate power, and justify emergency measures like the Patriot Act’s annual renewals.
While Steer’s claim that “psychopaths” run the show is provocative, it’s grounded in a broader truth: systemic incentives central banks propping up fiat currencies, and governments drowning in debt create conditions where chaos benefits the powerful. The result? A world where gold and silver become safe havens.
The Debt Avalanche: $11.5 Trillion and No Brakes
The U.S. debt crisis is no longer a warning it’s a reality. In 2025, the Treasury must refinance $9 trillion in existing debt and issue $2.5 trillion in new borrowing, per Congressional Budget Office estimates. That’s $11.5 trillion in one year, on top of a national debt exceeding $36 trillion (120% of GDP, per IMF).
“It’s not a budget it’s insanity,” Steer said. “They’re spending money they don’t have, financed with debt they can’t repay.”
Even Elon Musk, initially tasked with taming the budget, called a recent $1 trillion military spending bill an “abomination.” The DOGE Committee, meant to streamline government, failed to make a dent, much like the Reagan-era Grace Commission.
Steer sees this as a death spiral: “They’ll pay it back in dollars worth pennies compared to today.” The mainstream media, meanwhile, insists the economy is fine. But gold’s climb to $3,500 says otherwise.
Hyperinflation: The Camel’s Nose Under the Tent
Could hyperinflation the kind that turned Weimar Germany’s marks into wallpaper or Zimbabwe’s dollars into kindling hit the U.S.? Steer thinks it’s closer than we realize.
“We’re seeing the thin edge of the wedge,” he said. “Gold’s surge, the dollar’s slide below 60% of global reserves it’s already here.”
The 2022 seizure of Russia’s $300 billion in foreign reserves was, in Steer’s words, a “Rubicon moment” for the dollar. Global trust in U.S. financial hegemony is eroding, with countries like India and Brazil pivoting to gold (India added 50 tons in 2024, per Reuters).
If commodity prices were allowed to trade freely, Steer argues, inflation would be undeniable. That’s why banks suppress gold and silver to mask the decay. But as Hemingway warned about bankruptcy: “Slowly at first, then suddenly.” Steer believes the “suddenly” phase is looming.
The Manipulation Debate: GATA vs. the Skeptics
Steer’s involvement with GATA, which was formed in 1999 to expose gold and silver price suppression, shapes his worldview. He argues that bullion banks, with central bank complicity, cap metals prices to prop up fiat currencies.
Not everyone agrees. Commentator Bob Moriarty dismisses manipulation claims: “All markets are manipulated. If you talk about it, you don’t know what you’re talking about.”
Steer laughs this off: “Moriarty dumped on GATA for years. When the evidence piled up, he switched to ‘all markets are rigged’ without admitting he was wrong.”
CFTC data lends credence to Steer’s view. In Q1 2025, four major banks held 70% of silver short positions on COMEX, a concentration unusual for a “free” market. GATA’s decades-long warnings are looking less like conspiracy and more like prophecy.
Silver’s Quiet Revolution: The Startup Poised to Pop
While gold grabs headlines, silver is staging a stealth comeback. “There’s been quiet buying in silver ETFs and equities,” Steer noted. “Silver stocks are at their highest since July 2021.”
For example, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) added 200 tons in Q1 2025, nearing its 2020 peak (Bloomberg). Silver mining stocks like First Majestic and Pan American Silver have surged 25% since January, per Yahoo Finance.
It’s like a tech startup gathering steam before an IPO. Retail investors may not notice yet, but institutions are positioning for a breakout. “One day, $35 will look like a bargain,” Steer said. “Once it hits $50, it’s off to the races.”
Physical Metal: The Ultimate Insurance
Steer’s mantra is clear: own physical metal. Not ETFs, not futures, but coins and bars you can hold. “Paper burns,” he said. “Metal endures.”
This is where dealers like Arc Silver Gold, a podcast sponsor, come in. Known for transparency and competitive pricing (e.g., 2023 Silver Kangaroos at $2.47 over spot), they cater to investors like Sarah who want real bullion. In a world of digital IOUs, physical metal is a hedge against chaos.
Conclusion: Stack, Learn, and Stay Vigilant
Ed Steer’s message isn’t for the faint of heart. The financial system is cracking, debt is a runaway train, and geopolitical risks are a lit fuse. But in the chaos lies opportunity.
Gold is remonetizing itself, climbing to $3,500 and beyond. Silver, the overlooked wildcard, is coiling for a breakout. “We’re in the ‘slowly’ phase,” Steer warned. “The ‘suddenly’ part will shock everyone.”
For clarity, turn to Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Digest, a daily deep dive into markets for $100 a year—260 issues of charts, data, and unfiltered analysis. For action, consider physical bullion. As Steer says, “I’m all in, to whatever end.”
So, watch the debt. Watch the wars. Watch the metals. Because when the paper burns, only gold and silver will shine.
Sources:
Commodity Culture, “Will Silver Stay Above $35?” (YouTube, May 2025)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Reports, April 2025
World Gold Council, 2024 Gold Demand Trends
Bloomberg, COMEX Delivery Data, Q1 2025
Congressional Budget Office, 2025 Budget Projections
Jim Rickards, Currency Wars (2011)
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I do like listening to Ed. He has taken up the mantle from the great and dear Ted Butler. Keep stacking!
This is one of the sharpest breakdowns of silver’s strange resistance at $35 I’ve seen. Steer’s take on the “paper wall” via COMEX is eye-opening — it really does feel like silver’s fighting a rigged game while gold breaks free.